I keep hearing the same thing from buyers lately: "The market feels different. Less crazy. Maybe I should wait a bit longer." They're not wrong about the first part. The market does feel more balanced. But that waiting strategy might cost them the homes they actually want.
Here's what's actually happening in the Inner East Bay, and why the sense of calm might be misleading.
Why Buyers Think They Have More Leverage
Homes are staying on the market slightly longer. The median days on market hit 15 days in October, up from 14 days last year. That single extra day sounds insignificant until you realize how much psychology shifted around it.
Buyers see properties listed for two or three weeks and think sellers must be getting desperate. They start calculating lowball offers, convinced they can negotiate aggressively because the frenzy is over.
When homes aren't disappearing in 48 hours, it feels like the balance of power shifted. But you're not seeing the full picture.
What the Numbers Actually Show
According to recent Inner East Bay market data covering Alameda, Albany, Berkeley, El Cerrito, Kensington, Oakland, Piedmont, and San Leandro, sellers are still performing exceptionally well. The median sales price reached $1,250,000 in October, up 3.5% from $1,207,500 the previous year.
More telling is how homes are closing. An impressive 75.9% of homes sold over their list price. Sellers received an average of 114.8% of their asking price, up a full percentage point from 113.7% last year.
That doesn't sound like a market where buyers suddenly gained significant negotiating leverage.
The Balanced Feeling Is Real But Misunderstood
The market does feel more balanced. Buyers today have more time to think. They can schedule second and third showings without worrying the house will be gone tomorrow.
This represents a healthier dynamic than recent years when buyers waived inspections and offered hundreds of thousands over asking sight unseen.
But balanced doesn't mean buyer favorable. It means neither side has overwhelming leverage. The homes sitting for 30 or 40 days are almost always overpriced or have condition issues. Properties priced correctly are still moving in that 15 day window and generating competing offers.
Inventory Dropped While You Were Watching
Available listings fell 6.4% year over year to 611 homes at the end of October. That's fewer choices, not more. When inventory tightens, competition increases even if individual properties take slightly longer to sell.
I worked with a buyer last month who thought she had time because she was seeing 20 to 30 active listings. When we narrowed it down to homes that actually met her criteria, we were looking at maybe five properties. Two were overpriced. One needed significant work. She made a competitive offer on one of the remaining two and got it, but only because she acted decisively.
Why 114.8% of List Price Matters
That average sale price of 114.8% of list tells you what's really happening. Sellers who price strategically are still getting premiums.
Here's the pattern: A home hits the market priced 5% to 8% below what the seller thinks it's worth. Buyers recognize the value immediately. By the first weekend, three or four serious buyers have toured it. By the following Wednesday, the seller has multiple offers.
I recently listed a home in Alameda at $1.15 million when comparable sales suggested $1.2 million was achievable. We received five offers in nine days. The property closed at $1.22 million. The "balanced" market didn't prevent that outcome.
What Buyers Are Getting Wrong
The biggest mistake I'm seeing is conflating a more measured pace with reduced competition. They're not the same thing.
Yes, you have more time to evaluate properties. Yes, sellers are more realistic about pricing. But no, that doesn't mean you can wait indefinitely or offer $50,000 under asking on well priced properties.
The buyers succeeding right now do their homework. When they find properties priced fairly, they make competitive offers. The buyers struggling treat this like a buyer's market. They're making lowball offers that get rejected and missing out on homes they actually wanted.
What This Means for Your Strategy
If you're buying in the Inner East Bay right now, take advantage of the more measured pace. Do thorough research. Visit multiple properties. But once you find a home that meets your needs and is priced fairly, act decisively.
With 75.9% of homes selling over list and inventory down 6.4%, well priced properties are still generating competition. The 15 day median gives you breathing room, but not unlimited time or unlimited negotiating power.
I've had multiple conversations with buyers who passed on homes they liked because they thought they'd find something better later. Those buyers are still looking, asking me if properties similar to the ones they passed on are coming back on the market. They're not.
The 3.5% year over year price appreciation combined with 75.9% of homes selling over asking shows a market that's functioning healthily. Not overheated. Not collapsing. Just working the way real estate markets should work.
If you're thinking about buying in Berkeley, Oakland, Alameda, or any of the Inner East Bay cities, I'm here to help you understand what this balanced market actually means for your situation. The key is recognizing that balance creates opportunity for smart buyers, not unlimited leverage for cautious ones.
Kelly
