Stop trying to time the market. If you see a house you like and you can afford it, that's the time to buy. A home isn't just an expense, it's an investment in your future. The focus should be on your monthly payment and general affordability, not what rates might be in three months.
I've had this conversation with buyers more times than I can count, and it usually goes something like this: they find a house they love, they can afford the payment, but they're hesitating because they're convinced rates will drop next quarter or prices will come down if they just wait a little longer. Meanwhile, the house sells to someone else, and six months later they're still looking, except now prices are higher and they're kicking themselves for waiting.
Here's what I tell people, and I mean this: you do not know if it's going to be worth less money or more money next month or next year. Nobody does. What you do know is whether you like a house and whether you can afford it right now. If both of those things are true, and you'd be happy living there, that's when you should buy it.
The market will do what it does regardless of your timing attempts, but your life keeps moving forward whether you're in the right home or not. I've never had anyone tell me they really hate their house but they're grateful they live there because it was cheap. Never. But I've had plenty of people tell me they wish they'd bought the house they loved instead of waiting for some perfect market moment that never came, and those conversations are always a little heartbreaking because you can hear the regret in their voices.
The Myth of Perfect Timing
Let me be honest with you about something, and I'm not saying this to pressure you or make you feel rushed. Interest rates are probably never going to go down to where everyone hopes they'll go. And if they do go down, then the prices are going to go up because more buyers will jump into the market. It's not complicated math. Lower rates mean more competition, which means higher prices, which often means you're not actually saving money by waiting.
I watched this play out in 2020 and 2021 when rates were at historic lows, and I had buyers who were thrilled to get 2.75% rates but then ended up paying $100,000 or $200,000 over asking price in bidding wars. So were they really winning? Maybe, maybe not. The ones who are happy now are the ones who bought houses they actually wanted to live in, not the ones who bought whatever they could get just because rates were low.
Right now in Lamorinda, buyers have given up those 2.75% loans for 6% rates, and a lot of them are hesitant about it. I get that, I really do. But some have accepted the new reality and are moving anyway, and you know what? They're relieved. They're in homes they love, in neighborhoods they wanted, near the schools they prioritized. The payment is higher than it would have been three years ago, but they're building equity and living the life they wanted instead of sitting on the sidelines waiting for rates that might never materialize.
You can always refinance if rates drop. You can always refinance and get a lower rate down the road. But you can't get back the time you spent waiting, and you can't get back the house you passed on that was actually perfect for you and your family.
What Actually Matters When Buying
When people push for what they want, they're usually happier, and I've seen this pattern play out repeatedly over the years. The buyers who compromise too much on what they actually want, who buy something just because it's cheap or just because the timing seems right, those are the ones who end up unhappy and looking to move again in a few years. And that's a shame because buying and selling homes is stressful and expensive, and you don't want to do it more often than you have to.
Buy a house you like and can afford. That's it. That's the formula, and I know it sounds almost too simple. Not a house you think might be a good investment. Not a house that's the cheapest option. Not a house you're settling for because you think it's smart. A house you actually like and would be happy to live in.
Why would you buy a house that doesn't elicit emotion? It's sort of a fool's errand to treat it as a financial instrument and not be emotional about it. This is where you're going to live, where your kids might grow up, where you'll have holidays and birthdays and regular Tuesday nights. You should feel something when you walk through it, something that makes you think "yes, I could see us here."
I question buyers who say they don't want to get emotional about a purchase, and I understand where that instinct comes from because nobody wants to make a bad decision based on feelings alone. But why would you spend a million and a half dollars on something you don't feel emotional about? The emotional connection matters because you're going to be living there, and life is too short to live somewhere you don't actually want to be just because the spreadsheet said it was the smart move.
Understanding Affordability in Lamorinda
Let's talk about what affordability actually means in our market, and I want you to know that these numbers can feel overwhelming at first, but they become more manageable when you break them down. In Lafayette, Moraga, and Orinda, you're looking at entry level homes in the $1M to $1.4M range, family homes between $1.4M and $2.5M, and luxury properties starting at $2.5M and going up from there.
For a lot of buyers, especially first timers, those numbers feel overwhelming at first, but here's what I want you to understand: as long as you can afford the payment, it doesn't really matter how much you put down. I actually prefer lower down payments because it keeps a cash cushion for you. Better to have cash for improvements or unexpected expenses than to tie it all up in your down payment and then panic the first time something breaks.
You can always pay down the principal later if you want to, but your payment stays the same regardless. The key is making sure your monthly payment fits comfortably in your budget, not stretching yourself so thin that you're house poor and can't enjoy living there or doing things with your family.
Consider your career trajectory too, especially if you're younger or mid career. If you're a young professional or in a field where income growth is likely, your financial situation in five years will probably look very different than it does today. Buying a home you'll grow into makes sense if you can afford it now, even if it feels like a stretch. I've had so many buyers thank me years later for encouraging them to stretch a little for the house they really wanted, because their incomes grew and the payment became easier while they got to enjoy the home the whole time.
The PMI Myth That Keeps People Waiting
Let me address something that drives me crazy, and I'm passionate about this because I've seen it keep too many great families out of homes they could afford. The fear of PMI, or private mortgage insurance, gets such a bad reputation, and I think the criticism is completely misguided.
Here's an example that might change how you think about it: you're buying a $500,000 house with 3.5% down on an FHA loan. Your PMI might be $200 a month. Over two years, that's $4,800. Now let's say in those two years, the house appreciates from $500,000 to $600,000, which is realistic in many Lamorinda neighborhoods. You made $95,200 in appreciation minus that $4,800 in PMI payments. PMI doesn't really cost money when you look at it that way. Does that make sense? It can put you in the game when you otherwise couldn't play.
If you wait two years to save up for a bigger down payment to avoid PMI, and prices go up during that time, you've lost far more than you would have spent on PMI. You're trying to save pennies while dollars are walking out the door, and meanwhile you're still paying rent or living somewhere you don't want to be.
Better to buy now at a lower price with a higher rate and PMI, then refinance later if rates drop. At least you're building equity and living in your own place instead of paying rent or staying somewhere you don't want to be. And honestly, there's something to be said for waking up in your own home, in a neighborhood you chose, even if you're paying a little PMI to make it happen.
What's Happening in Lamorinda Right Now
The current Lamorinda market offers something we haven't had in a while, and I think it's actually a gift for buyers who are ready: actual inventory and time to make decisions. We've got inventory now, and it's relatively high, especially in Orinda where the increase over normal has been pretty significant. Lafayette probably has the biggest numbers overall.
Buyers are super picky, they're slow, and they have very little sense of urgency. They're not in a hurry to overpay, and honestly, I don't blame them. But this also means when you find something you like, you have time to think about it and make a good decision without the pressure of ten other offers coming in immediately. That's a luxury we didn't have a few years ago.
This is actually a great buying environment if you're ready to act when you find the right house. You can do thorough inspections, negotiate repairs, and make informed decisions without feeling rushed. But you still need to move when the right opportunity appears because great houses priced properly will sell quickly for over list, even in this market.
Orinda
Orinda attracts buyers focused on schools and that suburban feel with solid access to the Caldecott, and if you've got kids or are planning to, I understand why those schools matter so much. Entry level homes typically fall in the $1M to $1.4M range, family homes run $1.4M to $2.5M, and luxury estates start at $2.5M and above. The inventory increase here means you have more options, but the best properties in the best locations still move quickly when someone recognizes the value.
Lafayette
Lafayette offers walkable downtown living with proximity to downtown, Burton Valley Elementary, or Happy Valley Elementary, and there's something special about being able to walk to coffee or dinner on a Saturday morning. Entry level starts in the $1M to $1.4M range, family homes run $1.4M to $2.5M, and luxury properties start at $2.5M and go up. The bigger inventory numbers mean you can be selective, but don't overthink it when you find what you want.
Moraga
Moraga has that small town feel and family oriented community vibe, with the Campolindo High School area being particularly desirable, and I've worked with so many families who fell in love with the pace of life here. Entry level pricing falls in the $1M to $1.4M range, most family homes sit between $1.4M and $2.5M, and luxury properties in premium locations like Rheem Valley start at $2.5M and above. Buyers here often want more space and a quieter setting, and right now you can find it without the feeding frenzy pressure of past years.
First Time Buyer Mistakes
I see first time buyers make the same mistakes repeatedly, and the biggest one is focusing only on getting the cheapest house they can find. They're so worried about overpaying or making a mistake that they end up buying something they don't actually like just because it checks boxes on a spreadsheet. I understand the fear, I really do, but I also know how it plays out.
Buy a house you like and can afford, not the cheapest house available. The difference between a house you love and a house you settled for is the difference between looking forward to coming home every day and counting the months until you can move again. And that difference affects your quality of life every single day.
Another common mistake is waiting for perfect conditions that never arrive. They want rates to drop, they want prices to fall, they want more inventory, they want less competition. Meanwhile, life is passing them by. Their kids are getting older, their commute is killing them, their rental is cramped, and they're missing out on years of building equity and stability. I've watched families wait three or four years, and when I run into them later, there's always this wistfulness about the homes they passed on.
The market is never going to be perfect. There's always going to be something that seems like a reason to wait. But when you find a house you like in a neighborhood you want at a price you can afford, that's not the time to wait for perfection. That's the time to move forward with confidence.
Questions Buyers Actually Ask Me
What if I buy now and rates drop next year?
Then you refinance and get a lower rate, and you're already building equity in a home you wanted instead of still looking and paying higher prices because rates dropped and brought more competition. I've had this exact conversation with buyers who were worried about this, and the ones who bought anyway are now glad they did. Buying now with a higher rate at a lower price often works out better than waiting, and you get to live in your home the whole time instead of wondering "what if."
Should I wait until I have 20% down to avoid PMI?
Probably not, unless you can save that money quickly without prices rising significantly. PMI is typically much less expensive than the appreciation you'll miss by waiting. Run the actual numbers on your specific situation, but don't let PMI fear keep you out of the market for years. I've seen too many families do that and end up regretting it.
What if prices drop after I buy?
What if they go up? You don't know, and neither does anyone else, and I'm not going to pretend I have a crystal ball. If you're planning to live in the house for several years, short term price fluctuations don't matter as much as being in a home you want in a location you love. Real estate has historically appreciated over longer time periods, and you're building equity through your mortgage payments regardless of short term market movements. Focus on your life, not on trying to predict the market.
How do I know if a house is overpriced?
Work with an agent who knows the local market and recent sales, and I'm happy to be that person for you. In Lamorinda, I can tell you exactly what comparable homes have sold for in the past 30 days and whether a listing is priced fairly. But even if a house is slightly overpriced, if it's the right house for you and you can negotiate or it's worth it for other reasons, that might be okay. Not every decision is purely financial, and sometimes the intangibles matter just as much.
Should I wait for more inventory?
We have inventory now, more than we've had in years. If you're waiting for some mythical perfect moment when there are hundreds of options and no competition, that's not realistic and honestly, you'll be waiting forever. Good houses in good neighborhoods will always have competition. The question is whether you're finding houses you like now, and if so, why wait?
The Real Cost of Waiting
Every month you wait is another month of rent payments that build no equity. It's another month in a home that's not quite right, another month of commuting from somewhere you don't want to be, another month of your kids in schools you didn't choose. And I know that sounds dramatic, but it's true. Time is the one thing you can't get back.
I've watched buyers wait for years trying to time things perfectly, and most of them end up paying more in the long run and settling for less than they wanted because they waited too long. The buyers who are happiest are usually the ones who moved when they found what they wanted, not the ones who tried to outsmart the market.
Interest rates going down would be great, but it's like they're probably never going to go down to where people hope. And if they do, prices will adjust upward to compensate. The market always finds equilibrium, and timing it perfectly is basically impossible.
What you can control is whether you're living in a home you love, in a neighborhood you chose, building equity toward your future. That's worth more than trying to save a quarter point on your interest rate or waiting for prices to drop $50,000. Those are just numbers. Your life and your family's happiness are what matter.
Moving Forward with Confidence
When's the best time to buy a house? When you see what you like and can afford. That's the answer, and it's been the answer for as long as I've been doing this. Everything else is noise and overthinking.
If you're looking in Lamorinda and you're ready to stop waiting for perfect timing, I'd love to help you find the right home. Not just any home, but the one that makes sense for your life, your budget, and your future. The one that makes you excited to move in, not the one you're settling for because the numbers worked. I want you to feel good about this decision.
I've helped hundreds of families navigate exactly this decision over the years, and the ones who are happiest years later are the ones who bought what they loved when they could afford it. They're not the ones who timed the market perfectly, because nobody times the market perfectly. They're the ones who recognized a good opportunity and took it, and now they're building memories in homes they love.
If you're thinking about buying in Lafayette, Moraga, or Orinda, let's talk. I want to understand what you're looking for, what your budget looks like, and what's holding you back. Then we can figure out whether now is the right time for you, not based on what rates might do or what the market might do, but based on your actual life and goals.
Because buying a home isn't about outsmarting the market. It's about finding the right place to build your life, and there's no perfect time for that except when you find it. And I'd be honored to help you find it.
