Buyers keep asking me the same question at open houses: "How long has it been on the market?" They see a property listed for two or three weeks and assume the seller is getting desperate. They start calculating their lowball offer before they've even finished touring the house.
I understand the logic. In their minds, more time on market equals negotiating leverage. But the data tells a completely different story, and buyers who operate on this assumption keep missing out on homes or making offers that sellers reject immediately.
According to recent Inner East Bay market data, homes are selling at an average of 114.8% of list price. Not asking price. Not a bit over asking. Nearly 15% above what sellers listed their properties for. And this is happening with a median market time of 15 days, which is only one day longer than last year.
So no, a couple weeks on market doesn't translate to big discounts. Here's what's actually happening.
The Misconception About Market Time
Buyers see a home listed for 18 or 22 days and think something must be wrong with it. They assume the seller is panicking. They believe they can come in $50,000 or $100,000 under asking and negotiate from there.
Then they're shocked when the seller receives multiple offers and the property closes above list price. They don't understand how this happens when the house has been sitting there for weeks.
The answer is simple: 15 days is not a long time. Neither is 20 days. These timelines reflect normal buyer behavior, not seller desperation.
Today's buyers are deliberate. They schedule multiple showings. They revisit properties with family members. They research neighborhoods thoroughly. They compare finishes across a dozen homes before deciding. This process takes time, and sellers who price their homes correctly understand that.
What looks like a property "sitting" is actually a property being evaluated by serious buyers who are doing their homework.
What the Data Actually Shows
The Inner East Bay market data from October 2025 reveals something important: 75.9% of homes sold over list price. Read that again. Three out of four homes sold for more than asking.
The median sales price rose 3.5% year over year to $1,250,000. Closed sales increased 2.2% to 374 properties. Available inventory dropped 6.4% to 611 homes. These numbers don't suggest a market where buyers have massive negotiating power.
Sellers are performing well because motivated buyers still compete for desirable properties. The 114.8% of list price received represents a full percentage point increase from 113.7% last year. If buyers had significant leverage due to longer market times, that number would be trending down, not up.
Market time increased by just one day compared to last year. One day. That's the difference buyers are trying to leverage into substantial discounts.
Why Homes Take Two to Three Weeks to Sell
The process itself takes time. Most sellers list their properties on a Tuesday or Wednesday. They hold broker tours on Thursday. Public open houses happen over the weekend. Serious buyers schedule private showings during the following week.
Buyers who are genuinely interested often return for second or third viewings. They bring partners, parents, or contractors to evaluate the property. They run numbers on renovation costs. They research comparable sales. They discuss their offer strategy with their agents.
By the time offers come in, you're looking at 12 to 18 days from the initial listing. This timeline reflects normal due diligence, not a failing listing.
I listed a property in Berkeley last month that followed exactly this pattern. On the market for 16 days. Buyer visited three separate times with different family members. When they finally submitted an offer, it came in at $75,000 over asking because they'd done their research and knew the value was there.
When Market Time Actually Matters
Not all properties selling in two or three weeks command premium prices. Market time becomes meaningful when you understand the context.
A well priced home in excellent condition should generate serious interest within the first two weeks. If that interest results in offers by day 18 or 20, the market time is irrelevant. The property performed as expected.
An overpriced home that sits for 30, 45, or 60 days tells a different story. Extended market time combined with price reductions signals that the initial pricing missed the mark. In these cases, buyers do gain some negotiating leverage, but even then, well located properties in good condition rarely sell at steep discounts.
The key difference is whether the market time reflects normal buyer behavior or indicates a pricing problem. Most buyers can't distinguish between these scenarios, so they assume all market time works in their favor.
What Buyers Should Focus on Instead
Rather than obsessing over how many days a property has been listed, evaluate whether the asking price aligns with recent comparable sales.
Pull the last three to six months of sales data for similar homes in the same neighborhood. Look at size, condition, lot characteristics, and location. If the asking price falls within or below that range, you're looking at a property that will likely receive competitive offers regardless of market time.
I worked with a buyer last year who wanted to offer $850,000 on a property listed at $950,000 because it had been on the market for 25 days. The comparable sales all ranged from $920,000 to $960,000. I told him the offer would be rejected and suggested $925,000 instead. He insisted on the lower number. The seller didn't even respond. The property sold three weeks later for $940,000 to a buyer who understood the market.
The Inventory Reality Nobody Talks About
Available inventory in the Inner East Bay dropped 6.4% year over year. Fewer homes to choose from. When inventory tightens, competition increases even if individual properties take slightly longer to sell.
Buyers browsing listings see dozens of options and assume they have leverage. But many of those listings are overpriced, in poor condition, or poorly located. The pool of truly desirable properties remains limited.
This scarcity drives the 75.9% of homes selling over list price. Buyers who find properties that meet their needs don't want to risk losing them over aggressive negotiating tactics. They've already toured enough mediocre homes to recognize when something stands out.
The properties sitting for 40 or 50 days are typically the ones with issues. Buyers who chase those listings hoping for deals often discover why they're still available. Meanwhile, well priced homes continue to sell quickly at premium prices.
Stop Using Market Time as Your Primary Metric
Focus on value instead. If a home meets your needs, is priced fairly based on comparable sales, and shows well, make a competitive offer regardless of whether it's been listed for 10 days or 20 days.
Buyers who wait for sellers to panic are often waiting for something that won't happen. Properties priced correctly will receive offers from other buyers who recognize the value. You'll either compete or you'll lose.
I've watched buyers talk themselves out of great properties because they thought 17 days on market meant they could negotiate aggressively. Those same buyers are still looking months later while the homes they passed on sold to people who understood market reality.
The data supports this approach. When 75.9% of homes sell over asking and the average sale price reaches 114.8% of list, buyers clearly don't have the leverage they think they do based on market time alone.
Two or three weeks on market is normal buyer behavior, not seller desperation. The Inner East Bay market continues to favor well priced, well presented properties regardless of whether they sell in 12 days or 22 days.
If you're buying in the Inner East Bay and want guidance on what actually makes sense for your situation, reach out. I'm happy to walk through the numbers with you and help you understand what you're really looking at when you see a property that's been listed for a few weeks. The market rewards informed decisions, and I'd rather see you succeed than watch you miss out on the right home because you misread what the data means.
-Kelly
