The question I get asked most often right now is simple: “Is this a buyer’s market or a seller's market?” And the honest answer is that the East Bay housing market in 2025 has shifted decisively in favor of buyers, particularly here in Lamorinda. Understanding why this shift happened and what it means for your situation matters whether you're buying or selling.
We've moved from the extreme seller's market of 2020 and 2021, where buyers waived contingencies and offered hundreds of thousands over asking, to a market where buyers have options, time to decide, and genuine negotiating power.
The Current Market Reality
Let me be direct about what I'm seeing across Lafayette, Orinda, and Moraga right now, because the data tells a clear story.
Days on market have increased significantly. Properties that would have sold in three to five days in 2021 are now taking two to four weeks to go into contract, sometimes longer if they're not priced and presented correctly. We have inventory now, and it's relatively high. Lafayette probably has the biggest numbers overall, while Orinda has seen the biggest increase over what's historically normal.
List to sale price ratios have shifted from homes regularly selling 10% to 20% over asking to most properties now selling at or slightly below asking price. The exceptions are homes that are truly special, priced strategically, and show perfectly. Those can still generate multiple offers and sell over asking, but they're the minority.
Buyer behavior has changed completely. They're super picky, they're slow, and they have very little sense of urgency. They're not in a hurry to overpay because they can see that homes are sitting if they're overpriced or not in great condition.
Why the Market Shifted
Interest rates went from historic lows around 2.75% to 3% in 2021 to 6% and higher now. This fundamentally changed buyer purchasing power and psychology. Many potential buyers are sitting in homes with those low rate mortgages, reluctant to give them up unless they absolutely have to move.
Inventory increased as some sellers who waited out the competitive market finally decided to list, while fewer buyers were competing. The imbalance between supply and demand that created the extreme seller's market corrected, and in some neighborhoods, we actually have more supply than demand right now.
Economic uncertainty has made buyers more cautious. Job market concerns, inflation, and stock market volatility all contribute to buyers taking their time and being more selective.
What This Means for Buyers
If you're buying in the current East Bay market, you have advantages that didn't exist a few years ago.
You have time to make decisions. You can see a house, think about it, come back for second showings, do thorough research on comparable sales, and make informed decisions without feeling rushed.
You have negotiating power again. You can negotiate on price if a home has been sitting. You can ask for inspection repairs without worrying the seller will move to the next buyer. You can negotiate terms that work for your situation.
You have options. Multiple homes are often available in your target neighborhood and price range, which means you can be selective about condition, location, and features.
But don't mistake a buyer's market for a free for all. Great properties that are priced correctly and show well still generate competition. If you find something that truly works, you still need to move with reasonable speed and make a solid offer. The difference is that "reasonable speed" now means days rather than hours.
My advice for buyers is to get pre approved, understand what homes are actually selling for, be ready to act when you find the right property, but don't feel pressured to settle for something that doesn't work. You have leverage, so use it wisely.
What This Means for Sellers
If you're selling in the current market, the rules have changed and you need to adjust your strategy.
Pricing correctly from day one is critical. In a seller's market, you could price high and let buyers compete up. In a buyer's market, overpricing means your home sits, becomes stale, and eventually sells for less than if you'd priced right initially.
Presentation matters enormously now. Buyers have options and time, which means they're extremely picky about condition. Homes that need work are getting discounted heavily or sitting for months. Homes that are sharp, beautifully prepared, properly staged, and truly move in ready are getting good offers quickly.
The first two weeks your home is on market are your most valuable window. This is when you get the most attention. If you're not getting showings immediately, your price is probably wrong. If you're getting showings but no offers within two to three weeks, you likely have a condition problem or your price isn't quite right.
You need to be realistic about negotiations. Buyers are going to ask for inspection repairs, possible credits, and terms that favor them. You can't take a "my way or highway" position like sellers could in 2021.
My advice for sellers is to invest in proper preparation, price based on very recent comparable sales, make showing easy with flexible access, and be prepared to negotiate reasonably.
The Properties That Still Win
Even in a buyer's market, certain properties generate competition and sell quickly for strong prices.
Homes in premium locations near top rated schools, downtown areas, or particularly desirable streets still command attention. Location advantages don't disappear.
Properties in excellent condition that show beautifully and are truly move in ready attract buyers who recognize quality. These homes often get multiple offers even when similar homes in worse condition sit unsold.
Homes priced strategically, at or slightly below recent comparable sales rather than testing the market with hopeful pricing, generate immediate interest.
Properties marketed professionally with excellent photography and aggressive promotion stand out in a crowded market.
The combination of great location, excellent condition, smart pricing, and professional marketing still creates successful sales even in a buyer's market.
Looking Ahead
Market conditions will eventually shift again, but trying to time the market perfectly is usually a mistake.
If you're a buyer waiting for even better conditions, remember that if interest rates drop significantly, more buyers will jump in, prices will likely rise, and you'll face more competition. The current buyer's market with higher rates might actually offer better overall value.
If you're a seller waiting for the market to improve, consider your actual timeline and needs. Carrying costs, maintenance, and the opportunity cost of not moving forward all factor into whether waiting makes sense.
The East Bay housing market is currently favoring buyers. But homes are still selling, families are still moving, and transactions are still happening. The key is understanding current dynamics and adjusting your strategy rather than wishing for different conditions or trying to operate like it's still 2021.
If you're navigating this market as a buyer or seller in Lamorinda, I can help you understand specifically what's happening in your target neighborhood and price range, what strategy makes sense for your situation, and how to position yourself for success. The market we're in isn't the market we wish we had, but it's the market we need to work with, and success is absolutely possible with the right approach.
-Kelly
