The East Bay housing market in 2025 looks fundamentally different from where we were a year ago, and understanding these shifts matters whether you're buying, selling, or just trying to understand what's happening in your neighborhood. I've been tracking the data across Lafayette, Orinda, and Moraga closely, and the trends tell a clear story about how our local market is evolving.
Let me walk you through what's actually changing in terms of prices and inventory, what's driving these changes, and what it means for your specific situation.
The Inventory Story
The most dramatic shift in our local market has been inventory levels, and this change is driving almost everything else we're seeing.
A year ago in early 2024, Lamorinda inventory was still relatively tight. We had limited options for buyers, which kept competition moderate and gave sellers reasonable leverage. Now in 2025, we have inventory, and it's relatively high compared to historical norms.
Lafayette probably has the biggest inventory numbers overall. At any given time, you might find 40 to 60 active listings across all price ranges, compared to maybe 25 to 35 a year ago. That's nearly double the available options for buyers, which fundamentally changes market dynamics.
Orinda has seen the biggest increase over what's normal for that community. Historically, Orinda might have 20 to 30 active listings. Now we're regularly seeing 45 to 55 properties available. This represents a substantial shift for a market that's typically been quite supply constrained.
Moraga inventory has increased as well, though less dramatically than the other two communities. The increase here has been from roughly 15 to 20 listings to about 25 to 35, which still represents significant additional choice for buyers.
What's driving this inventory increase? Several factors are converging. Some sellers who held off during the extreme seller's market of 2021 and 2022 are finally listing. Others are relocating for jobs or family reasons and can't wait any longer for market conditions to improve. And fewer buyers are competing for these properties because of higher interest rates and economic uncertainty.
Price Trends Across Lamorinda
Price trends have been more nuanced than inventory trends, varying significantly by price range and neighborhood rather than showing one clear direction across the entire market.
In Lafayette, entry level homes from $1M to $1.4M have seen modest price softening, maybe 3% to 5% compared to peak pricing a year ago. These properties are particularly sensitive to interest rate changes because buyers at this price point are often stretching to afford Lamorinda, and higher rates directly impact their purchasing power.
Lafayette family homes from $1.4M to $2.5M have held relatively steady in pricing, down perhaps 2% to 3% from a year ago but not showing dramatic declines. Quality properties in good locations are still commanding strong prices when properly presented.
Lafayette luxury properties above $2.5M show more variability. Some have sold quickly at strong prices, others have sat for months and eventually sold at 8% to 10% below initial asking prices. The luxury market is particularly dependent on having the right buyer at the right time.
In Orinda, the school reputation continues to provide price support, but we're still seeing softening. Entry level properties from $1M to $1.4M are down roughly 4% to 6% from peak pricing. Family homes from $1.4M to $2.5M have softened maybe 3% to 5%. Luxury estates above $2.5M show the most variation, with some selling strong and others requiring significant price adjustments.
Moraga pricing has remained relatively stable compared to Lafayette and Orinda, likely because inventory increases there have been more moderate. Properties from $1M to $1.4M are roughly flat to down 2% compared to a year ago. Family homes from $1.4M to $2.5M have held steady or softened just slightly. Premium properties in areas like Rheem Valley are still commanding strong prices when they're truly special.
Days on Market Tell the Real Story
While price changes have been relatively modest, days on market statistics reveal how dramatically buyer behavior has shifted.
A year ago, well priced homes in good condition were typically going into contract within 7 to 14 days across Lamorinda. Now those same quality homes are taking 14 to 28 days to find buyers. Properties that aren't priced correctly or need work are sitting 45 to 90 days or longer before selling.
This extended market time reflects several realities. Buyers have options now, so they're taking time to compare everything available before making decisions. They're not feeling urgency because they can see inventory levels are healthy. And they're being extremely selective about condition and value.
The properties that are still selling quickly, within that 14 to 21 day window, share common characteristics. They're in premium locations near top schools or downtown areas. They show beautifully with updated condition throughout. They're priced at or slightly below recent comparable sales rather than testing the market. And they're marketed professionally with excellent photography and promotion.
Neighborhoods Seeing the Biggest Shifts
Certain Lamorinda neighborhoods are experiencing more dramatic changes than others, and understanding these local dynamics helps you make better decisions.
In Lafayette, the Happy Valley and Burton Valley areas near top elementary schools continue to perform relatively well with less price softening and faster sales than other pockets. Downtown adjacent neighborhoods are also holding up better because walkability appeals to buyers who prioritize that lifestyle. Areas farther from schools and downtown are seeing more inventory build up and more price pressure.
In Orinda, neighborhoods within the top school boundaries like areas near Wagner Ranch Elementary or Orinda Intermediate are showing more resilience than other parts of town. Properties with larger lots and privacy are taking longer to sell than more modest homes on smaller lots, partly because fewer buyers can afford the premium pricing that large lot properties command.
In Moraga, the Campolindo High School area continues to draw strong interest from families. Properties in Rheem Valley and other premium pockets are experiencing longer market times than in previous years but still commanding solid prices when they're truly exceptional. The more affordable neighborhoods are seeing the most buyer activity relative to available inventory.
What's Driving These Changes
Understanding what's causing these market shifts helps you anticipate what might happen next and plan accordingly.
Interest rates moving from under 3% to 6% and higher fundamentally changed buyer purchasing power. A buyer who could afford $2 million at 3% can only afford roughly $1.5 million at 6% for the same monthly payment. This compression of purchasing power is showing up in softening prices, especially at entry level where buyers are most rate sensitive.
Many potential move up buyers are locked into low rate mortgages from 2020 and 2021 and are reluctant to give up 2.75% rates for 6% rates. This has reduced the pool of active buyers, particularly for family homes in the $1.4M to $2.5M range where move up buyers are typically most active.
Economic uncertainty including concerns about tech sector layoffs, stock market volatility, and inflation has made buyers more cautious about major financial commitments. They're taking their time, being more selective, and negotiating harder than they did when economic conditions felt more stable.
The combination of these factors has shifted leverage from sellers to buyers in ways we haven't seen since before 2020.
What This Means for Your Decisions
If you're buying in 2025, these trends work in your favor. You have more options, more time to decide, and more negotiating power than you've had in years. Focus on finding the right property rather than settling, and don't be afraid to negotiate on price or terms when appropriate.
If you're selling in 2025, you need to adjust to current reality. Price based on very recent comparable sales, not on peak pricing from last year. Invest in presentation to make your home stand out from increased competition. Be prepared for longer market times and more buyer negotiation than you would have faced a year ago.
For both buyers and sellers, working with someone who understands these local market dynamics and can provide specific guidance for your target neighborhood and price range makes a significant difference in outcomes.
The Lamorinda market in 2025 is not the market we had in 2024, and it's definitely not the market we had in 2021. Understanding how prices and inventory have shifted, and why, helps you make better decisions whether you're buying or selling. If you want to discuss what these trends mean for your specific situation, let's talk about the data that matters most for your neighborhood and goals.
