I'm going to be honest with you because that's the way I do things. I've been hearing the same thing from potential buyers all across the Lamorinda region - Lafayette, Orinda, Moraga, Walnut Creek, Pleasant Hill: "Kelly, we're waiting for rates to come down before we move."
I understand. No one wants to hear 6-7% when they recall those nice 2.75% days. But this is what I've discovered after all these years of having done this in our particular East Bay market and observing folks make costly errors: waiting for the ideal rate is like waiting for ideal weather. You can be waiting forever.
The Reality Check You Need to Hear
My buyers today are nothing like the wild 2020 crowd. At that time, individuals were making offers on everything sight unseen, without inspections. The current market isn't urgent unless a house is reasonably priced and in great shape.
Now? Everybody's slow. Everybody's picky. Everybody's hyper-sensitive to days on market statistics and price reductions. They're nitpicking every feature, particularly old finishes, and expecting price discounts for upgrades even when houses are reasonably priced.
And guess what? That's really opening up opportunities for the buyers who get this change in the market and are prepared to move.
Move-Up Buyers: You're Stuck in Your Own Head
I witness this every day in LaMorinda. Family sitting in homes they've outgrown, clutching their 2.75% loans as if they're lottery tickets. Move-up buyers are reluctant to trade away those rates for today's 6-7% unless they absolutely need to upsize.
I can see the fear. The mathematics appears intimidating on paper.
But this is what I say to these families: your children are growing up in small bedrooms. You're entertaining holidays in a kitchen that you despise. You're foregoing actually living your life because you're afraid of a number on a loan document.
Life doesn't stand still waiting for rates to get along. And let's face it - you could be waiting years.
What "Waiting" Actually Costs (And It's More Than You Think)
I want to give you an example of what we did with a family I was working with. They'd been searching in Orinda for months, and we came across this fantastic house - four bedrooms, within walking distance of Wagner Ranch Elementary, new kitchen, the whole thing. Priced at $1.85 million.
They adored it. Made an offer. Got accepted. Then while in their inspection period, they began to get cold feet on the monthly payment with rates at 6.5%. "Kelly, what if rates go down to 5% next year?" they asked. "Should we wait?"
I took them through the figures, presented to them several scenarios, but it is their choice in the end. They withdrew.
Eight months later, they phoned me. Rates hadn't really changed much, but the same neighborhood? Comparable houses were now beginning at $1.95 million. They wound up paying $110,000 more for a fixer-upper house than on the first house.
That monthly payment they were concerned about? It increased anyway due to the greater purchase amount. This isn't some fabrication. This is what occurs when you attempt to time the market rather than concentrating on securing the appropriate home.
The Competition Truth Nobody Talks About
Here's something most people don't think about: everyone else is waiting too. The second rates drop even a little, you're competing with every other buyer who had the same brilliant "wait and see" strategy.
Right now, while everyone's being cautious, you have negotiating power. Sellers are more flexible on price, closing costs, repairs. When rates drop and the competition comes back, that advantage disappears overnight.
My Approach: Education Over Sales Pitches
Look, I don't work with scripts. I'm not going to feed you generic real estate lines. What I will do is educate you on what's actually happening in our market so you can make the best decision for your situation.
When I work with buyers, I give you scenarios. I show you the numbers. I explain the trade-offs. Want to wait six months? Here's what that might cost you. Want to stretch your budget slightly for a home you'll love long-term? Here's how that math works with your future income growth.
I'm not here to pressure you. I'm here to make sure you understand what you're choosing when you choose to wait.
First-Time Buyers: My Honest Advice
My advice remains the same: purchase what you want and can pay for. Don't chase after the lowest monthly payment and get into a property that doesn't put you in a good mood. Why waste $1.5 million on a home you're not passionate about?
That additional $300-400 a month from increased rates? Set that against what you're paying as rent and the equity you're earning as a homeowner. In our East Bay marketplace, purchasing still is reasonable at current rates.
And here's something that people don't consider: PMI is not necessarily a bad thing. It lets you get into the market sooner. Save some cash for upgrades instead of investing every cent of it in your down payment. Stretch your budget a bit for long-term enjoyment and include your increased future earnings.
The Personal Side (Because Real Estate IS Personal)
This business isn't just about numbers and transactions. I help families through major life changes. I know how important it is to find the right home when you actually need it.
Why spend years in a space that doesn't work for your family just because rates aren't perfect? Your kids won't get their childhood back. You won't get those years in your dream home back either.
Remember: You Can Always Refinance
Here's what people forget: your first mortgage doesn't have to be your last mortgage. If rates drop significantly, you refinance. But if home prices keep climbing while you wait, you've lost that equity opportunity forever.
I tell my clients to marry the house, date the rate. Find the right home, then adjust the financing later when better options come along.
What I'm Seeing Right Now in Our Lamorinda Market
Most buyers today in our marketplace are fixated on days on the market statistics and reductions in price. Sellers are asked to reduce prices for everything, even when a home is reasonably priced for necessary repairs. This presents realistic buyers who can be realistic about rates and willing to make a move with real opportunities.
Here's what I do that works: I've watched houses sit way overpriced for 30+ days, then taken them off the market for a day or two and re-listed them with a price reduction. This re-positions them as "new" on Zillow once again, and together with the price drop, it gets more traffic. I had one recently - originally listed at $2.2 million, reduced to $1.895 million, taken off market, and re-listed, selling for $15,000 above asking.
The consumers who recognize this marketplace dynamic and act upon it when they find the appropriate property at the appropriate cost are prevailing, no matter what rates are doing. But you need to know how to interpret the signals.
The Bottom Line (No Sugar-Coating)
Interest rates are only one part of your home buying equation. Your home's price, your circumstances, the market, and your family's needs are more important than attempting to time the perfect rate.
Don't let rate nervousness deter you from achieving wealth and securing your spot in the Lamorinda community. The ideal time to purchase is when you discover the ideal home within your budget and that suits your lifestyle.
I've established my practice on authenticity, opinion, and relationships. I don't script because real estate is personal, not transactional. When you're ready to quit waiting and begin looking, I'll give you the straight scoop on our local market, not generic real estate jargon.
Ready to wait no more and begin searching? Let us find you a house that makes sense at today's rates in Lafayette, Orinda, Moraga, Walnut Creek, or Pleasant Hill, with wiggle room to refinance when tomorrow's rates are improved.
Because honestly? Tomorrow's rates may never arrive, but today's prospects in our Lamorinda marketplace won't last forever.
— Kelly Crawford
Realtor, Kelly Crawford Team – Lafayette, CA
